The challenge of locating land-based climate change mitigation and adaptation politics within a social justice perspective: towards an idea of agrarian climate justice

Abstract

The global land rush and mainstream climate change narratives have broadened the ranks of state and social actors concerned about land issues, while strengthening those opposed to social justice-oriented land policies. This emerging configuration of social forces makes the need for deep social reforms through redistribution, recognition, restitution, regeneration and resistance – book-ended by the twin principles of ‘maximum land size’ (‘size ceiling’) and a ‘guaranteed minimum land access’ (‘size floor’) – both more compelling and urgent, and, at the same time, more difficult than ever before. The five deep social reforms of socially just land policy are necessarily intertwined. But the global land rush amidst deepening climate change calls attention to the linkages, especially between the pursuit of agrarian justice on the one hand and climate justice on the other. Here, the relationship is not without contradictions, and warrants increased attention as both unit of analysis and object of political action. Understanding and deepening agrarian justice imperatives in climate politics, and understanding and deepening climate justice imperatives in agrarian politics, is needed more than ever in the ongoing pursuit of alternatives.     

Handwriting evidence evaluation based on the shape of characters: application of multivariate likelihood ratios

A novel Bayesian methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess handwriting evidence by means of a likelihood ratio (LR) designed for multivariate data. This methodology is presented and its applicability is shown through a simulated case of a threatening anonymous text where a suspect is apprehended. The shape of handwritten characters a, d, o, and q of the threatening text was compared with characters of the true writer, and then with two other writers, one with similar and one with dissimilar characters shape compared to the true writer. In each of these three situations, 100 draws of characters were made and the resulting distributions of LR were established to consider the natural handwriting variation. LR values supported the correct hypothesis in every case. This original Bayesian methodology provides a coherent and rigorous tool for the assessment of handwriting evidence, contributing undoubtedly to integrate the field of handwriting examination into science.     

Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.     

Rapid analysis of caffeine in "smart drugs" and "energy drinks" by microemulsion electrokinetic chromatography (MEEKC)

A novel method based on microemulsion electrokinetic chromatography (MEEKC) with diode array detection (DAD) for rapid determination of caffeine in commercial and clandestine stimulants, known as "energy drinks" and "smart drugs", is described. Separations were carried out in 50 cm × 50 μm (ID) uncoated fused silica capillaries. The optimized buffer electrolyte was composed of 8.85 mM sodium tetraborate pH 9.5, SDS 3.3% (w/v), n-hexane 1.5% (v/v) and 1-butanol 6.6% (v/v). Separations were performed at a voltage of 20 kV. Sample injection conditions were 0.5 psi, 3 s. Diprofilline was used as internal standard. The determination of the analytes was based on the UV signal recorded at 275 nm, corresponding to the maximum wavelength of absorbance of caffeine, whereas peak identification and purity check was performed on the basis of the acquisition of UV radiation between 200 and 400 nm wavelengths. Under the described conditions, the separation of the compounds was achieved in 6 min without any interference from the matrix. Linearity was assessed within a caffeine concentration range from 5 to 100 μg/mL. The intra-day and inter-day precision values were below 0.37% for migration times and below 9.86% for peak areas. The present MEEKC method was successfully applied to the direct determination of caffeine in smart drugs and energy drinks.     

Bayesian networks and the value of the evidence for the forensic two-trace transfer problem*

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.     

“Tampering to Death”: A Fatal Codeine Intoxication Due to a Homemade Purification of a Medical Formulation

Many homemade tamper processes of medical codeine formulations are available on selected “forums” on the Internet, where recreational codeine users claim to be able to purify codeine by removing additives, such as acetaminophen, to avoid or limit adverse effects. In this work, it is reported and discussed a fatal case of codeine intoxication. The findings of objects such as jars, filters, and tablets, and amounts of unknown liquid material at the death scene investigation suggested a fatal codeine intoxication after the tampering procedure called “cold water extraction.” Toxicological results obtained from the analysis of both the nonbiological material and the body fluids of the decedent integrated with the information collected at the death scene investigation confirmed the above‐mentioned hypothesis. This report underlines the importance of a tight interconnection between criminalistics and legal medicine to strengthen the identification of the cause of death and the reconstruction of the event.     

Evaluation of scientific evidence using Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks provide a valuable aid for representing epistemic relationships in a body of uncertain evidence. The paper proposes some simple Bayesian networks for standard analysis of patterns of inference concerning scientific evidence, with a discussion of the rationale behind the nets, the corresponding probabilistic formulas, and the required probability assessments.     

The Structure and Dynamics of Group Politics: 1964–1992

In the realm of politics the relevance of groups derives from their centrality to government institutions, the policy process, and election campaigns. In addition, individuals have a predisposition to rely on cues and shortcuts when making choices and forming preferences; groups are ideal for this purpose. Groups help orient individuals to their social world by providing standards, supplying information, and defining friend and foe. If groups are central to politics and political cognition then we should find an underlying political structure within which group attitudes can be organized, and through which other political attitudes, coalitions, and behaviors can be viewed. In our analysis we apply Rabinowitz (1976) Line of Sight method for ordering object pairs consistent with the Euclidean spatial model to the complete series of group thermometer ratings from the NES Presidential Election Studies, 1964 through 1992. The resulting eight group by group matrices are subjected to a series of multidimensional scaling models to determine the underlying structure of the group spatial distances. Our findings suggest that orientations toward groups can be satisfactorily mapped into a two-dimensional space defined by partisan and affective axes. Over this 30-year period we find that attitudes toward groups have become more emotional and less partisan in nature. Interpretation of the group space is further aided by the use of ideal-point regressions that make it possible to place voters, members of the New Deal coalition, and issue publics in the space defined by group attitudes.     

Presidential coattails, incumbency advantage, and open seats: A district-level analysis of the 1976–2000 U.S. House elections

This study extends the analysis of presidential coattails to the most recent U.S. House elections. Building upon previous research on this subject, it draws a clear distinction between open and incumbent-held seats and presents evidence about several measures of presidential coattails. In particular, the analysis attempts to estimate, controlling for incumbency, the strength of presidential coattails (the proportion of the vote received by a congressional candidate that is due to the presence of the presidential nominee on the ballot) and the effectiveness of a president's coattails (the number of districts gained or retained by a party because of the net influence of presidential candidates). The results show that, contrary to earlier findings and trends, the unique impact of presidential coattails in open seat races did not decline. The results also suggest that several representatives who played a very prominent role in crafting the Republican strategy to win back control of the House in 1994 were the beneficiaries of the coattail effect.